For over a decade, New York City has been caught in a tug-of-war: residents leaving for other parts of the country, immigrants arriving from abroad, and a slowly shrinking natural advantage of births over deaths. New Census estimates released in March 2026 show how a drop in international migration brought the city's growth to a halt -- and into reverse.
NYC lost over 300,000 people in a single year during COVID. A wave of international migration -- asylum seekers, visa backlogs clearing -- brought it most of the way back. Then in 2025, international arrivals fell by 70%, and the city lost population again.
Every year, NYC's population is shaped by three competing forces. Domestic outflow (red) has been consistently negative. International inflow (blue) has varied sharply from year to year. And natural change (green) has been slowly shrinking.
NYC has always lost people to other parts of the U.S. and gained them from abroad. When international migration is strong enough to offset domestic losses, the city grows. When it isn't, the city shrinks. In 2025, it wasn't.
Births have declined steadily while deaths rose through COVID. The natural increase that once added nearly 70,000 New Yorkers per year now adds just 36,000 -- and the gap keeps closing.
Every borough except Staten Island and the Bronx lost population in 2025. Queens and Brooklyn bore the brunt of the domestic outflow.
Population indexed to 2011 = 100, so boroughs of different sizes can be compared on equal footing. Manhattan's COVID collapse and partial rebound stands out; Staten Island barely budged.
The raw numbers: how many people each borough gained or lost in each year. Manhattan's 2021 loss of 117,000 was the single worst borough-year in the dataset.
Every component of population change for the five boroughs combined, year by year.
| Year | Population | Births | Deaths | Natural change | Intl. migration | Domestic migration | Net change |
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New York state added 1,008 people in 2025. The state has been losing residents to domestic migration for over two decades. In years when international migration is high enough to offset those losses plus the declining natural increase, the state grows; in 2025, it was nearly a wash. Here are the full state-level components going back to 2003.
All components, 2003-2025, for New York state.
| Year | Population | Births | Deaths | Natural change | Intl. migration | Domestic migration | Net change |
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