The great crime decline
of the 2020s

U.S. cities are seeing the fastest drop in homicides ever recorded. Gun suicides are rising, and the U.S. gun homicide rate is still many times that of other wealthy nations.

0%
Murder drop, 2024→2025 (FBI)
The murder rate fell 18.5%, the largest one-year drop since FBI estimates began in 1936
0%
Chicago since 2021 peak
From 797 to ~400 homicides
4.1
2025 murder rate per 100K (FBI)
Tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest since 1936
26×
US vs. peer nations
Gun homicide rate remains an outlier

The 30-year arc

U.S. firearm homicide rate per 100,000 population, 1993–2024

From the crack-era peak to a 2014 low, with a pandemic spike after

Series: CDC National Center for Health Statistics death-certificate data, firearm homicide (excluding legal intervention), crude rate per 100,000, all ages; final data through 2024. 1993–1998: CDC WISQARS figures as tabulated by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (appendix table 1). 2000–2016: NCHS Injury Mortality: United States. 2018–2024: NCHS final data via CDC WONDER (CDC NCHS FastStats and the National Vital Statistics Reports). Final 2025 data are not yet published.

The firearm homicide rate peaked at 7.0 per 100,000 in 1993 during the crack epidemic, then plunged over two decades to a low of 3.5 in 2014. The pandemic-era spike in 2020–2021 drove the rate back up to 6.3, the highest since 1994. But since 2022, homicides have fallen at record speed. By 2024 the rate was 4.5, just above the pre-pandemic 2019 rate (4.4). CDC's provisional count for 2025 is 12,857 firearm homicides, down from 15,364 in 2024 (CDC injury and violence dashboard data, as of October 2026).

Four waves of violence

U.S. homicide rate per 100,000 at key historical moments, from CDC death-certificate data — the long view

Era Year Rate What was happening
Prohibition Peak 1933 9.7 Organized crime; Great Depression
Post-War Low 1957 4.5 Institutional stability; suburban boom
Social Upheaval 1980 10.7 99-year all-time peak
Crack Epidemic 1991 10.5 Handgun proliferation; youth violence
Great Decline Low 2014 5.0 Modern historic trough
Pandemic Surge 2021 7.8 COVID-19 institutional decoupling
The Great Cooling 2024 5.9 Record CVI investment; institutional restoration

Series: CDC National Center for Health Statistics homicide death rate, crude, per 100,000, all ages. Sources: 1933, CDC Historical Homicide Trends; 1957, NCHS historical death rates, 1950–59; 1980 and 1991, NCHS historical death rates, 1979–98; 2014, NCHS Injury Mortality: United States; 2021, NCHS Deaths: Final Data for 2021; 2024, CDC NCHS FastStats. Rates through 1998 include deaths by legal intervention; later rates exclude them. From 1933 on, the data cover the whole continental United States.

American homicide rates have risen and fallen in waves. Each surge (Prohibition, the late '60s–'80s, crack, COVID) was followed by a decline, and the current decline is the fastest on record. The 2024 rate of 5.9, the latest final figure, was still above the 2014 low of 5.0. CDC's provisional count for 2025 is 17,271 homicides, down from 20,162 in 2024.

The spike and snapback

Year-over-year change in U.S. murders, FBI national estimates, 2019–2025

Four straight years of decline have erased the pandemic surge

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting, change in the estimated national number of murders as published in each year's release, through Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025. The 2021 estimate was made with a different method and isn't directly comparable with the other years.

The FBI estimates 14,085 murders in 2025, a rate of 4.1 per 100,000, tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest since its national estimates began in 1936.

City by city

Homicide counts in major U.S. cities, 2019–2025

New York City
2025: Record-low shootings. ↓ 21% from 2024
Chicago
2025: Down 49% from 2021 peak. ↓ 30% from 2024
Philadelphia
2025: Fewest since 1966. ↓ ~40% from peak
Los Angeles
2025: Below pre-pandemic levels. ↓ 21% from 2024
Baltimore
2025: Fewest since 1962. ↓ 60% from 2019
Detroit
2025: Lowest since 1964. Historic decline

Sources: ABC News, Council on Criminal Justice Year-End 2025, AH Datalytics, city police departments

The global outlier

Even at its recent lows, the U.S. gun homicide rate is many times that of peer nations

Gun homicide rate per 100,000 population

Sources: Everytown Research, World Population Review, Our World in Data. Most recent available year (2022–2024). U.S. bars: CDC National Center for Health Statistics, final data (see the 30-year chart above).

The U.S. rate (4.5 per 100,000 in 2024, per the CDC) is far above other high-income nations; Everytown's analysis of 2013–2019 data put it at 26× their average. Gun ownership tracks the gap: the U.S. has 120.5 guns per 100 residents, compared to 34.7 in Canada, 4.6 in the UK and 0.3 in Japan. In 2024, 76% of all U.S. homicides involved a firearm, far above European or Asian averages. The U.S. rate is far below Brazil (~22) and Mexico (~17), but it remains an outlier among high-income nations.

Anatomy of gun deaths

Most gun deaths in America are suicides

57–58% — Suicide (27,593)
35% — Homicide (15,364)
4% — Law enforcement / Legal intervention
3% — Accidental
1% — Undetermined

Source: Giffords / CDC 2024 data. Total: ~44,447 gun deaths in 2024.

In 2024, firearm homicides fell 14.3% (from 17,927 to 15,364) while gun suicides increased 1.1% (from 27,300 to 27,593). Suicides now account for 57–58% of all gun deaths, up from 55% in 2023. Total gun deaths are falling, but that total combines a steep drop in homicides with a rise in suicides.

Two epidemics, diverging

Firearm homicides vs. firearm suicides, 2019–2024

Homicides fall while suicides rise

Sources: Giffords, The Trace / CDC

Gun homicides dropped 14.3% in a single year (2023→2024) while gun suicides rose 1.1%. White males account for nearly 9 in 10 gun suicides, often in rural areas where community violence intervention programs don't reach. Gun suicide rates among Black and Hispanic/Latino youth (ages 10–19) have tripled since 2014.

Mass shootings

Incidents with 4+ victims shot, 2014–2025

Mass shootings have declined but remain far above pre-2020 levels

Source: Gun Violence Archive. Definition: 4+ victims shot (injured or killed), not including the shooter.

Who bears the burden

Gun violence falls unevenly by race, age and sex

Firearm homicide victimization rate by demographic (per 100,000), 2018–2022 avg

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2025

In cities over 65,000, Black Americans face a gun homicide rate of 23.6 per 100,000 — a 5.5× disparity with white Americans (4.3). Young adults (18–24) face the highest risk by age. Males are victimized at 5.6× the rate of females. Despite this, Black Americans saw a 15% drop in their gun homicide rate in 2024, one of the sharpest declines. Handguns account for 90% of all firearm violence.

Summary

What the data shows, and where it stops

The decline is real

Three consecutive years of record-breaking drops, and multiple cities at 60-year lows. The decline has reversed the pandemic-era spike.

It's broad-based

31 of 35 major cities saw declines in 2025. Robberies down 23%, carjackings down 43%. Nearly every category of violent crime is falling.

Compared with what?

The FBI's 2025 murder rate (4.1) is below both 2019 (5.0) and the 2014 low (4.4). CDC's final figures, which run through 2024, still had the firearm homicide rate slightly above 2019. Either way, U.S. rates remain far above other wealthy democracies. "Historic low" depends on your timeframe and your data source.

The U.S. remains an outlier

Everytown's analysis of 2013–2019 data put America's gun homicide rate at 26× the average of other high-income nations. The decline brings the U.S. closer to its own past rates but leaves it far above its peers.

Gun suicides are rising

Gun suicides, the majority of gun deaths, have risen even as homicides fell. Total gun deaths have fallen less than homicides alone.

Violence-intervention funding is running out

The American Rescue Plan Act pandemic relief that funded community violence intervention programs is expiring. Chicago invested $300M+ in community violence intervention since 2022, serving 27,000 high-risk individuals. Portland saw $5.26 return on every $1 invested. If this funding dries up in 2026, experts warn the decline could stall or reverse.