{
 "fetchedAt": "2026-10-15T15:36:26+00:00",
 "intro": "The tracker makes its own estimates from GPS positions. Here they are set beside what the MTA publishes, which runs about six weeks behind. The latest month both sources cover is August 2026.",
 "pairedMonth": "2026-08",
 "speedSeries": {
  "title": "Local routes, built the same way",
  "sub": "mph; each route counts once, every hour 6 a.m. to 11 p.m. counts equally, weekdays and weekends 5 to 2",
  "mtaLabel": "MTA published data",
  "months": [
   "2025-10",
   "2025-11",
   "2025-12",
   "2026-01",
   "2026-02",
   "2026-03",
   "2026-04",
   "2026-05",
   "2026-06",
   "2026-07",
   "2026-08",
   "2026-09"
  ],
  "ours": [
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   7.61,
   7.66,
   7.5
  ],
  "oursAll": [
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   7.61,
   7.66,
   7.5
  ],
  "oursMov": [
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   8.61,
   8.65,
   8.46
  ],
  "mta": [
   8.06,
   8.15,
   8.13,
   8.06,
   7.87,
   8.13,
   8.15,
   8.01,
   7.98,
   8.17,
   8.18,
   null
  ],
  "notes": [
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   null,
   "Tracker left out: too little of the month captured.",
   "Tracker left out: too little of the month captured.",
   "Tracker left out: too little of the month captured.",
   null,
   null,
   null
  ]
 },
 "nowcast": {
  "month": "2026-09",
  "value": 8.32,
  "basedOn": "2026-08",
  "mtaBase": 8.5,
  "oursBase": 7.66,
  "oursNow": 7.5,
  "backtest": [
   {
    "month": "2026-08",
    "predicted": 8.52,
    "actual": 8.5,
    "error": 0.02
   }
  ],
  "typicalError": 0.02,
  "text": "The MTA has not yet published September 2026. If its headline figure moves the way the tracker did, it will come in near 8.32 mph, 0.18 below August 2026's 8.50. Made this way, the forecast for August 2026 would have missed by 0.02 mph."
 },
 "nowcastLog": [
  {
   "month": "2026-09",
   "value": 8.31,
   "madeAt": "2026-10-06T20:52:39+00:00"
  },
  {
   "month": "2026-09",
   "value": 8.32,
   "madeAt": "2026-10-12T10:17:37+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "season": {
  "monthly": [
   {
    "month": "2019-01",
    "mph": 8.4
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-02",
    "mph": 8.34
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-03",
    "mph": 8.26
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-04",
    "mph": 8.28
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-05",
    "mph": 8.13
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-06",
    "mph": 8.14
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-07",
    "mph": 8.27
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-08",
    "mph": 8.31
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-09",
    "mph": 8.04
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-10",
    "mph": 8.12
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-11",
    "mph": 8.16
   },
   {
    "month": "2019-12",
    "mph": 8.22
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-01",
    "mph": 8.34
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-02",
    "mph": 8.31
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-03",
    "mph": 8.77
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-04",
    "mph": 9.81
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-05",
    "mph": 9.52
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-06",
    "mph": 9.0
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-07",
    "mph": 8.76
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-08",
    "mph": 8.71
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-09",
    "mph": 8.74
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-10",
    "mph": 8.72
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-11",
    "mph": 8.78
   },
   {
    "month": "2020-12",
    "mph": 8.79
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-01",
    "mph": 8.91
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-02",
    "mph": 8.66
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-03",
    "mph": 8.73
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-04",
    "mph": 8.61
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-05",
    "mph": 8.55
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-06",
    "mph": 8.42
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-07",
    "mph": 8.58
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-08",
    "mph": 8.57
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-09",
    "mph": 8.26
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-10",
    "mph": 8.23
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-11",
    "mph": 8.31
   },
   {
    "month": "2021-12",
    "mph": 8.44
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-01",
    "mph": 8.67
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-02",
    "mph": 8.5
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-03",
    "mph": 8.4
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-04",
    "mph": 8.36
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-05",
    "mph": 8.25
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-06",
    "mph": 8.27
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-07",
    "mph": 8.49
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-08",
    "mph": 8.49
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-09",
    "mph": 8.18
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-10",
    "mph": 8.24
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-11",
    "mph": 8.31
   },
   {
    "month": "2022-12",
    "mph": 8.37
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-01",
    "mph": 8.48
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-02",
    "mph": 8.47
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-03",
    "mph": 8.34
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-04",
    "mph": 8.4
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-05",
    "mph": 8.21
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-06",
    "mph": 8.27
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-07",
    "mph": 8.39
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-08",
    "mph": 8.42
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-09",
    "mph": 8.11
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-10",
    "mph": 8.13
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-11",
    "mph": 8.19
   },
   {
    "month": "2023-12",
    "mph": 8.27
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-01",
    "mph": 8.41
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-02",
    "mph": 8.33
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-03",
    "mph": 8.23
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-04",
    "mph": 8.25
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-05",
    "mph": 8.05
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-06",
    "mph": 8.15
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-07",
    "mph": 8.34
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-08",
    "mph": 8.35
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-09",
    "mph": 8.02
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-10",
    "mph": 8.11
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-11",
    "mph": 8.15
   },
   {
    "month": "2024-12",
    "mph": 8.24
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-01",
    "mph": 8.44
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-02",
    "mph": 8.39
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-03",
    "mph": 8.31
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-04",
    "mph": 8.29
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-05",
    "mph": 8.13
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-06",
    "mph": 8.22
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-07",
    "mph": 8.38
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-08",
    "mph": 8.47
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-09",
    "mph": 8.2
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-10",
    "mph": 8.24
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-11",
    "mph": 8.3
   },
   {
    "month": "2025-12",
    "mph": 8.29
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-01",
    "mph": 8.47
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-02",
    "mph": 8.08
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-03",
    "mph": 8.35
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-04",
    "mph": 8.38
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-05",
    "mph": 8.26
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-06",
    "mph": 8.25
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-07",
    "mph": 8.46
   },
   {
    "month": "2026-08",
    "mph": 8.5
   }
  ],
  "latest": {
   "month": "2026-08",
   "mph": 8.5,
   "highestSince": "2022-01",
   "monthsSince": 55
  },
  "augSep": [
   {
    "year": 2019,
    "aug": 8.31,
    "sep": 8.04,
    "delta": -0.27
   },
   {
    "year": 2020,
    "aug": 8.71,
    "sep": 8.74,
    "delta": 0.03
   },
   {
    "year": 2021,
    "aug": 8.57,
    "sep": 8.26,
    "delta": -0.32
   },
   {
    "year": 2022,
    "aug": 8.49,
    "sep": 8.18,
    "delta": -0.31
   },
   {
    "year": 2023,
    "aug": 8.42,
    "sep": 8.11,
    "delta": -0.31
   },
   {
    "year": 2024,
    "aug": 8.35,
    "sep": 8.02,
    "delta": -0.33
   },
   {
    "year": 2025,
    "aug": 8.47,
    "sep": 8.2,
    "delta": -0.26
   }
  ],
  "augVsYear": [
   {
    "year": 2019,
    "aug": 8.31,
    "yearMean": 8.22,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.09
   },
   {
    "year": 2020,
    "aug": 8.71,
    "yearMean": 8.85,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": -0.14
   },
   {
    "year": 2021,
    "aug": 8.57,
    "yearMean": 8.52,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.05
   },
   {
    "year": 2022,
    "aug": 8.49,
    "yearMean": 8.38,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.11
   },
   {
    "year": 2023,
    "aug": 8.42,
    "yearMean": 8.31,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.11
   },
   {
    "year": 2024,
    "aug": 8.35,
    "yearMean": 8.22,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.13
   },
   {
    "year": 2025,
    "aug": 8.47,
    "yearMean": 8.31,
    "months": 12,
    "delta": 0.16
   },
   {
    "year": 2026,
    "aug": 8.5,
    "yearMean": 8.34,
    "months": 8,
    "delta": 0.16
   }
  ],
  "oursAugSep": {
   "aug": 7.66,
   "sep": 7.5,
   "delta": -0.16,
   "sepDays": 30,
   "partial": false,
   "sepEnd": "2026-09-30"
  }
 },
 "metrics": [
  {
   "label": "Local routes, whole system",
   "period": "August 2026",
   "ours": "7.7 mph",
   "mta": "8.2 mph",
   "why": "Built the same way on both sides: local, limited and Select Bus Service routes each count once; every hour from 6 a.m. to 11 p.m. counts equally; weekdays and weekends are averaged separately and blended 5 to 2. The tracker's figure includes time stopped and reads below the MTA's; the next two rows say why. The MTA's headline figure, which weights routes by the miles they run and covers all hours, was 8.5 mph."
  },
  {
   "label": "Typical local route, speed with stops",
   "period": "August 2026",
   "ours": "7% slower",
   "mta": "baseline",
   "why": "Median across 265 local, limited and Select Bus Service routes, weekdays. Straight lines between GPS fixes about 40 seconds apart cut corners on turning routes, which makes it read low."
  },
  {
   "label": "Typical local route, moving speed only",
   "period": "August 2026",
   "ours": "6% faster",
   "mta": "baseline",
   "why": "The tracker's original measure, which drops readings under 0.5 mph. Leaving out time stopped makes it read fast."
  },
  {
   "label": "Staten Island express (SIM)",
   "period": "August 2026",
   "ours": "13% slower",
   "mta": "baseline",
   "why": "Median across 27 SIM routes, speed with stops. Express buses are kept out of the tracker's index."
  },
  {
   "label": "Weekday riders",
   "period": "August 2026",
   "ours": "1.23M (MTA counters)",
   "mta": "1.25M (MTA daily count)",
   "why": "Both are MTA numbers. The first comes from passenger counters on board; the second is the MTA's daily bus ridership estimate. The riders chart above uses the counters."
  }
 ],
 "flags": [
  {
   "head": "Routes line up almost exactly",
   "text": "Rank the 342 routes both sources cover from slowest to fastest, and the two lists nearly match (rank correlation 0.99, where 1 is identical).",
   "detail": "For comparing routes with each other, the tracker and the MTA tell the same story."
  },
  {
   "head": "The MTA figure falls between the tracker's two measures",
   "text": "On the typical local route, moving-only speed reads 6% faster than the MTA, and speed with stops reads 7% slower. B41: 6.6 mph with stops, 7.7 moving, 6.9 MTA; M15+: 7.5 mph with stops, 8.6 moving, 7.8 MTA; BX19: 5.5 mph with stops, 6.6 moving, 5.6 MTA.",
   "detail": "Moving speed leaves out time stopped, so it reads high. Speed with stops measures straight lines between GPS fixes about 40 seconds apart, which cut corners on routes that turn, so it reads low. Both rank routes the same way and move with the MTA from month to month, which is what the tracker is for."
  },
  {
   "head": "Staten Island express buses read slower here",
   "text": "SIM express routes read 13% slower than the MTA. SIM22: 17.7 mph here, 21.2 MTA.",
   "detail": "Not yet explained. Candidates include positions that refresh less often on highway stretches. Express routes are kept out of the index for this reason."
  },
  {
   "head": "Month to month, the two move together",
   "text": "From July 2026 to August 2026 the tracker moved +0.0 mph and the MTA, built the same way, +0.0 mph.",
   "detail": "Moves of a tenth or two are within the noise of either source."
  },
  {
   "head": "The MTA's two ridership counts disagree",
   "text": "Over the last 12 months, the passenger-counter figure ran anywhere from 96% to 112% of the MTA's daily bus ridership count.",
   "detail": "So a month-to-month change in riders depends on which count you use. Say which one."
  }
 ],
 "numbers": {
  "routesPaired": 342,
  "rankCorrelation": 0.988,
  "localMedianRatio": 0.935,
  "localMedianRatioMoving": 1.06,
  "localPctWithStops": 7,
  "localPctMoving": 6,
  "simMedianRatio": 0.874,
  "mtaHeadline": {
   "2025-10": 8.24,
   "2025-11": 8.3,
   "2025-12": 8.29,
   "2026-01": 8.47,
   "2026-02": 8.08,
   "2026-03": 8.35,
   "2026-04": 8.38,
   "2026-05": 8.26,
   "2026-06": 8.25,
   "2026-07": 8.46,
   "2026-08": 8.5
  },
  "mtaLocalMatched": {
   "2025-10": 8.06,
   "2025-11": 8.15,
   "2025-12": 8.13,
   "2026-01": 8.06,
   "2026-02": 7.87,
   "2026-03": 8.13,
   "2026-04": 8.15,
   "2026-05": 8.01,
   "2026-06": 7.98,
   "2026-07": 8.17,
   "2026-08": 8.18
  },
  "mtaExpressMatched": {
   "2025-10": 12.98,
   "2025-11": 13.03,
   "2025-12": 12.95,
   "2026-01": 13.34,
   "2026-02": 12.85,
   "2026-03": 13.23,
   "2026-04": 13.35,
   "2026-05": 13.05,
   "2026-06": 13.15,
   "2026-07": 13.58,
   "2026-08": 13.59
  },
  "waitAssessment": {
   "2025-10": 0.7018,
   "2025-11": 0.7148,
   "2025-12": 0.6929,
   "2026-01": 0.74,
   "2026-02": 0.6616,
   "2026-03": 0.7092,
   "2026-04": 0.7259,
   "2026-05": 0.7065,
   "2026-06": 0.6997,
   "2026-07": 0.7274,
   "2026-08": 0.7276
  },
  "additionalBusStopTime": {
   "2025-10": 2.57,
   "2025-11": 2.52,
   "2025-12": 2.8,
   "2026-01": 2.14,
   "2026-02": 3.87,
   "2026-03": 2.59,
   "2026-04": 2.25,
   "2026-05": 2.67,
   "2026-06": 2.68,
   "2026-07": 2.23,
   "2026-08": 2.21
  },
  "dailyRidershipWeekdayAvg": {
   "2025-10": 1375163,
   "2025-11": 1271489,
   "2025-12": 1178246,
   "2026-01": 1181308,
   "2026-02": 1169491,
   "2026-03": 1332753,
   "2026-04": 1331258,
   "2026-05": 1345860,
   "2026-06": 1316866,
   "2026-07": 1254897,
   "2026-08": 1248766,
   "2026-09": 1376134
  },
  "counterToDailyRatio": {
   "2025-09": 1.034,
   "2025-10": 1.08,
   "2025-11": 1.122,
   "2025-12": 1.111,
   "2026-01": 1.05,
   "2026-02": 1.012,
   "2026-03": 0.981,
   "2026-04": 0.963,
   "2026-05": 1.047,
   "2026-06": 1.049,
   "2026-07": 0.999,
   "2026-08": 0.981
  }
 },
 "sources": [
  {
   "name": "Bus speeds by route and hour (r6db-kkzj)",
   "url": "https://data.ny.gov/d/r6db-kkzj",
   "through": "August 2026"
  },
  {
   "name": "Bus speeds (cudb-vcni)",
   "url": "https://data.ny.gov/d/cudb-vcni",
   "through": "August 2026"
  },
  {
   "name": "Wait assessment (v4z4-2h6n)",
   "url": "https://data.ny.gov/d/v4z4-2h6n",
   "through": "August 2026"
  },
  {
   "name": "Customer journey metrics (8mkn-d32t)",
   "url": "https://data.ny.gov/d/8mkn-d32t",
   "through": "August 2026"
  },
  {
   "name": "Daily ridership (sayj-mze2)",
   "url": "https://data.ny.gov/d/sayj-mze2",
   "through": "2026-10-13"
  }
 ]
}