A data presentation · Sources: U.S. Census · NCHS · EIG · Brookings
The shrinking pie America's young-child geography
The common framing — big cities lose kids, suburbs catch them — is only partly right. Between 2010 and 2024, the U.S. under-five population shrank by roughly two million, so every type of place is drawing from a smaller pool.
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The national picture
A record-low child share
The under-eighteen population peaked around 2010 at 74.1 million and has fallen since. The under-five population fell further still, the steepest drop of any age group.
−2M
U.S. under-five population, change 2010 to 2024 (about a 10% decline)
U.S. Census
21.6%
Under-eighteen share of population in 2024, down from 24.0% in 2010
Census 2020 Demographic Profile
1.63
U.S. total fertility rate in 2024 — the lowest on record (replacement is 2.1)
National Center for Health Statistics, provisional
39%
Share of family households with children under eighteen in 2024, down from 54% in 1974
Census Bureau, November 2024
Demographer Kenneth Johnson estimates 11.8 million fewer births occurred between 2008 and 2024 than if 2007 fertility patterns had held.
The shrinking pool
U.S. under-five population, 2010 to 2024
The 0–4 population fell 8.9% during the 2010s alone — the steepest decline of any age group — then continued downward through the early 2020s before flattening.
Under-five population, in millions
Annual estimates, 2010 — 2024
Source: U.S. Census Bureau population estimates; Economic Innovation Group (EIG) 2025 update.
Reframing the story
Why "cities lose, suburbs gain" misleads
Problem one
The pie is shrinking, so everybody loses
Between 2010 and 2019 — well before COVID — the under-five count fell in every county type: large urban −1.5%, exurban −3.4%, metro rural −5.4%, nonmetro rural −8.0%.
Problem two
Suburbs are not absorbing urban losses
Suburbs of large metros gained under-five population only "very slightly" in 2022, 2023 and 2024, which is roughly flat. Most suburban growth rides on apartment households and older adults.
Problem three
The 2024 data reversed the pattern
For the first time this decade, the under-five population fell faster in rural and small-town counties than in large urban ones. The Bronx, Suffolk County (Boston) and San Francisco posted gains.
Problem four
Sun Belt exurbs are gaining
The only category with sustained gains since 2020 is exurban — outer-fringe metro counties in Texas, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida.
The under-five leaderboard
Where young children disappeared fastest
Cumulative change in under-five population since April 2020, large urban counties.
Manhattan and Brooklyn lost nearly one in five young children in three and a half years. New York City overall has roughly 100,000 fewer young children than in April 2020.
New York City's under-five population fell 8% in 2021, 5% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024.
Under-five change since April 2020
Selected large urban counties, percent change
Source: Economic Innovation Group analysis of Census population estimates, 2025.
Where the children went
Sun Belt exurbs are the only sustained gainers
Counties posting under-five growth above 5% since April 2020 are concentrated in three states — Texas, North Carolina and Arizona — with Florida exurbs adding double-digit overall population growth.
The Census Bureau confirms that counties 40 to 60 miles from metro cores now dominate the fastest-growing lists. The principal cities of Atlanta, Houston and Miami are themselves losing young children — the growth is in the exurban ring.
Exurban U.S. counties grew 5.5% cumulatively since April 2020 — faster than any other county type.
Under-five change since April 2020
Fastest-growing exurban counties, percent change
Source: Economic Innovation Group, "Young Families Exodus 2025," analysis of Census Vintage 2024 estimates.
The political and regional sort
Red states gained children, and blue states lost them
The twenty states that voted for Trump in 2024 saw their combined under-eighteen population grow from 43.1 million in 2019 to 43.7 million in 2024.
The twenty Harris-voting states saw their under-five count drop by 600,000 — and nearly half of that loss came from California alone, whose under-five population fell 12% in five years.
Five states grew their count of married families with children under five by 10% or more between 2019 and 2024: Idaho, South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee and the District of Columbia.
Under-five population, 2019 vs 2024
By 2024 presidential vote, in millions of children
Source: Institute for Family Studies analysis of Census data; results aggregated by 2024 vote.
The fertility fault line
Where Americans are having children — and where they aren't
No state's total fertility rate now reaches the 2.1 replacement threshold. South Dakota tops the list at 2.01; Vermont anchors the bottom at 1.30.
The West, historically the highest-fertility region, is now the fastest-falling. Utah's fertility rate dropped from 2.33 in 2014 to 1.80 in 2023, a 22.6% drop in a decade.
In 2020 to 2024, deaths exceeded births in 72% of all U.S. counties, up from 46% before the pandemic — and in 82% of nonmetro counties.
Total fertility rate by state, 2023
Births per woman; replacement = 2.1
Source: National Center for Health Statistics final natality data, 2023.
What's driving it
Three drivers that compound one another
Driver one — uniform
Fertility collapse
Births in 2024: 3.63 million, about 16.6% below 2007 despite 8% more women aged 20–39. Birth-rate declines have been nearly uniform across urban, suburban and rural county types, so falling fertility shrinks the pool everywhere but does not explain the differences between places.
Driver two — geographic
Migration explains the map
Large urban counties lost roughly 800,000 domestic migrants per year during the pandemic — double the pre-pandemic rate. The correlation between under-five change and overall population change in large urban counties was 0.78.
Driver three — amplifier
Housing costs amplify the sort
Home prices rose 47% and rents 26% since 2020. The rental market lost 6.1 million units renting under $1,000 between 2012 and 2022 — disproportionately the family-sized stock young parents rely on.
International immigration masks state-level losses: 84% of the U.S.'s 8.6 million population gain since 2020 came from net international migration. Immigrants skew adult, so they prop up population totals but do little to offset the under-five decline.
The 2024 inversion
Rural America is now losing young children faster than big cities
The urban child exodus has essentially stopped. Big-city under-five loss in 2023 to 2024 (−0.2%) matched the national rate.
Suffolk County (Boston) posted +2.5%. San Francisco grew 0.6%. The Bronx had its first positive year of the decade. Meanwhile, small-town and rural counties lost young children faster than large urban ones, the reverse of the pandemic-era pattern.
82% of nonmetro counties now have more deaths than births.
NYC under-five population, annual change
Percent change, year-over-year
Source: Economic Innovation Group analysis of Census estimates; "Young Families Exodus 2025."
What the data show
A different map, in four layers
Layer one
The pool itself shrank
The national under-five pool shrank by roughly two million since 2010, and family-household shares hit record lows. The shrinking pool matters more than which type of place wins a larger share of it.
Layer two
The geography is re-sorting
But toward Sun Belt exurbs and mid-sized affordable metros — Collin and Lubbock TX, Wake and Mecklenburg NC, Pinal AZ, Osceola and Lake FL — not toward conventional big-metro suburbs.
Layer three
The urban exodus has essentially stopped
Big-city under-five loss in 2023 to 2024 matched the national rate. Boston, San Francisco and parts of New York City turned positive.
Layer four
Rural America now loses young children faster than big cities
In 2024, small-town and rural counties lost young children faster than large urban counties did. 82% of nonmetro counties now have more deaths than births.
The question for urban policy is how a city keeps its share of a smaller national pie.
Sources and methodology
How this analysis was assembled
All figures in this presentation are sourced from publicly available federal data and analyses by recognized demographic research institutions. Direct links below.
Census population estimates — Vintage 2024 county and metro releases. census.gov
Economic Innovation Group (EIG) — "Family Exodus" 2023 and "Young Families Exodus" 2025. eig.org
Brookings Institution — William Frey's analyses of post-pandemic demographic data. brookings.edu
National Center for Health Statistics — Birth and fertility data, NCHS Data Brief 535. cdc.gov/nchs
Institute for Family Studies — State-level family migration analysis. ifstudies.org
Carsey Institute (UNH) — Kenneth Johnson, fertility deficit and natural-decrease analyses. carsey.unh.edu
Joint Center for Housing Studies (Harvard) — State of the Nation's Housing 2024. jchs.harvard.edu